A mighty Reeh El Sahara, or desert wind, is sweeping though the Arab world. Politicians and "experts" have been overtaken by events in Tunisia and Egypt. While we cannot foretell any specific outcomes, we see compelling reasons for these kinds of episode to recur.
I am not a geopolitical expert but, then again, who is? No one – no intelligence service, no embassy, none of the many think tanks and public pundits – predicted the spark that started in Tunisia and is currently enflaming Egypt.
Is it a geopolitical black swan, an unknowable turn of events, impossible to forecast because it exceeds our knowledge and imagination? I doubt it. In my view, like the latest financial crisis, it is another case of what radical philosopher Slavoj Žižek has called the "unknown known" – something lying in plain sight and completely obvious in retrospect, but willfully ignored because it doesn’t suit our view of the world.
Could it be that besides venal kleptocracies and fanatical theocracies, there might be another vision for Arab societies, one that promotes social justice and the rule of law? Given the velocity of recent events, it is obviously too early to answer this question, and it is probably naïve to bet on a purely positive outcome. But we have at least been granted a glimpse of this idealistic vision, which lay unseen by leaders and opinion makers, and we believe it is not merely a feverish desert mirage
Again, I am just an economist and given the dismal recent forecasting track record of my profession, I would not presume to criticize those who failed to see this historical turn coming. But looking to the future, as an economist, I see four elements that convince me such assertive public demonstrations will flare up again. The elements relate to economic equality, food prices, demographics and technology.
Equality is a much disputed theme in economic theory. This is not only because the term itself is elusive, but also because its analysis fails to yield clear, quantifiable messages. In economic terms, in a completely equal society, special talent would not be specially compensated. Hence, there would be no economic incentive to develop and use talent. And in a completely unequal society, where the uppermost stratum is unattainable through merit, the disincentives are the same. The regimes in the Arab world, and in many emerging markets as well, offer severely limited prospects for individual development and expression. What they do offer, however, is fertile ground for discontent.
Throughout history, high food prices have been a trigger for popular revolutions. Today, the pressures stemming from demographics and from development (through changes in food habits) in many emerging markets have sent food prices sharply higher. Add to that the increased acreage devoted to cultivating biofuels, plus clean water's increasing scarcity, and we have a recipe for rising food prices in the years ahead. With their oil wealth, Saudi Arabia and some of the Gulf States could divert some income to subsidizing food. Other, less well-endowed, countries will likely face the wrath of hungry crowds.
The most important source of political instability today and tomorrow , in my view, is demographics. The looming cost explosion facing the aging developed economies, and also China, is widely recognized. But there is an equally large demographic bubble, as we now must finally acknowledge. According to the UN, the median age of the population in the Arab world – that is, half of the population is at or below this age, half above – ranges between 24 and 30. In the US, the median age is 37, 42 in Western Europe and a ripe, old 45 in Japan. Obviously, if they can find no meaningful work, there will be plenty of frustrated, angry young men and women in the Arab states for years to come.
Add technology, in the form of the communication tools we all carry in our pockets and the social networks to link people together, and our picture is complete. Whatever the preliminary outcomes may be, we think it is safe to assume that Tunisia and Egypt are only the beginning of a hot wind of change sweeping through the Arab world.
Even though the violence is obviously a reason for concern, it is indeed a hopeful turn of events.
ReplyDeleteThe events in egypt might come to prove that democracy, equality and rule of law are values that are compatible with the arab culture and religion. It could help anchoring the universality of some human values in non-western societies, and the western world could shrug off some of it's arrogance. Democracy grown on local soil should be more fertile than imported democracy.
It is still too early to think like that, but one can always hope.
-an Optimist.